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https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596133480748-B56427TWNLN276G5HPYL/image-asset.jpeg Jan 30, 2020 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/equities-copy daily 0.75 2020-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597445329588-N1OHQLNJUEVIRL25D1LZ/MDT081420.png Equities-copy Medtronic PLC (MDT) $100.71 Fundamental Look: · Located in Dubland, Ireland, founded in 1949. Provider of medical services, technology, and solutions to hospitals, physicians, and clinicians, globally. · Shares of MDT are down 11.2% year to date and sits 17.5% below its 52 week high of $122.15. · From a fundamental vantage point, the last 12 months of revenue are down 5.3% in comparison to full year end 2019. On a sequential basis, the most recent quarter showed a 23% decline from the prior quarter, which in normal circumstances would certainly be outside of my comfort zone. · In looking to comments from the most recent quarterly call, the decline in sequential revenue was largely attributed to Covid related factors, namely the reduction in elective medical procedures, as healthcare systems directed the bulk of their attention to Covid-19 related procedures. · MDT’s total debt to capital ratio sits at 33% is within my comfort zone (which in general is sub 50% for long ideas). They’ve also spent within operating cash flows in each of the last 4 years, which gives me additional comfort specific to their debt levels remaining in check. The same holds true as it relates to MDT potentially diluting shareholders. · MDT will be reporting their 1Q21 results around August 25th 2020. Technical Look: · From a technical perspective MDT’s 10 day Exponential Moving Average crossed above the 100 day EMA on 8/6/20 with prices increasing 4.1% since that time. · This most recent push higher is accompanied by increased momentum (using the 14 period RSI as means of measurement). Trading volume (using a 20 period time frame) has actually been average, with the most recent candles (both in price movement and trading volume) indicating uncertainty, in my view. · Applying an anchored volume weighted average price indicator, and anchoring from the 3 most recent earnings releases shows potential support points at $94.63, $95.62 per share. In candor however, it also shows a possible point of resistance at $102.27, which in my view fits with the recent uncertainty and narrow trading range of recent candles. · For background, I like to make use of AVWAP to give insight into the average entry price of all long positions from a given/specific point in time. In this particular instance, you have investors who established positions as of 5/21/20 and 2/18/20 with average entry prices below current levels (and conceivably likely to maintain their long positions). · By the same token, those who established positions as of 11/19/19, are showing an average price point of $102.27, which is above current levels. Those investors could very well be inclined to exit their current positions once “made whole”. · Given the aforementioned resistance, my entry point would be near the $103 mark. From a risk management perspective, I would be looking to exit my position at 98.37, should my thesis prove incorrect, amounting to a 4.5% max loss threshold and equivalent to 1.89x the current Average True Range (ATR) of 2.45 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596134947975-8VLZL4CTO0K84CJCO0PH/image-asset.jpeg Equities-copy https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/education daily 0.75 2020-08-25 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369599296-376EE7IVR4Y279YIGCNI/image-asset.jpeg Education https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369410494-YAYBVEP6ELWK8XSHP6YG/image-asset.jpeg Education https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369311871-6UWOAGUOGZT5WMOQND3V/image-asset.jpeg Education https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598368407582-6VH9MON797ZDVI9MHI8B/image-asset.jpeg Education https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/commodities daily 0.75 2020-09-18 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597525239447-RQM0Z61DDUHD96KE6IQB/NatGas081520.png Commodities Natural Gas (2020U) $2.356 Fundamental Look: · EIA (Energy Information Administration) data for week ending 8/7/20 · Working gas in storage increased 1.7% over the prior week, at 3,332 Bcf · Current storage is 22% higher than this time last year, and 15% above the 5 year average · The most recent commitment of traders (COT) report shows no change in open interest week to week. · Commercial long positions – down 3% · Commercial short positions – down 2% · Large speculator long positions- up 4% · Large speculator short positions- down 19% On the face of things, the level of inventories relative to the 5 year average gives me a bit of pause as it relates to bullish prospects for natural gas long term. Still, the market reacted positively to the most recent inventory report, despite the 5 Bcf build (versus expectations for a 40 Bcf increase). More important to me (at least for the moment), is the behavior of commercials and large speculators on the most recent COT report. Open interest in its entirety as relatively flat from a week prior. While commercial longs decreased their long positions, by 3%, I also make note that their short positions declined by 2% as well. This coming in conjunction with a 4% increase in long positions by large speculators speaks to the potential for additional upside in natural gas for the moment. Technical Look: · On a technical basis, I would make note that the 10 period EMA crossed the 100 period EMA on August 7th, with prices increasing 17% since that time. · This in coming in conjunction with increased momentum and open interest, which I see as bullish. · In candor, I think a move into natural gas following the most recent move would be a bit late. · Despite the positive factors (in my view) specific to momentum, the contract current price ($2.356) in proximity to its top Bollinger band ($2.419) indicates that a reversion to the mean may be in order in the short term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1600453971359-TMZPB2QAM79Z8IMW0UGU/CT_2.png Commodities Cotton #2 (2020z) 65.85 ($0.6585 per pound) Fundamental Look: · The most recent commitment of traders (COT) report shows a 4% increase in total open interest week to week. · Commercial long positions – up 52% · Commercial short positions – up 1% · Large speculator long positions- down 9% · Large speculator short positions- up 12% (commercial hedgers are indicated by the red line in the bottom panel, while large speculators are represented by the green line in the bottom panel*) Despite the fact that commercial hedgers increased their long positions this week (per the most recent Commitment of Traders report), the extent to which commercials remain net short, indicates potential weakness in cotton prices, in my view. Of note is that commercials have been ahead of the prior moves down (specifically in February of 2020 and April of 2019). Additionally, not lost on me are projections within the most recent WASDE report, indicating that 2020/2021 Cotton stocks are expected to be 4.4 million bales higher than 2019-2020. Technical Look: · On a technical basis, I detect a slowing in momentum relative to recent price action. · Moreover, prices have been in an uptrend since April of this year, while momentum (using the 14 period RSI as a measure) had begun to cool. · But in all candor my thoughts around cotton weakening are based more on the above mentioned COT data, than any technical formation this time around. · I will note that current prices for the December contract are near the upper end of the Bollinger Bands (20 period, and 2 standard deviations). This played a secondary role in the call however. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596551274701-5HQX0N6XXTSGWE07HRH5/image-asset.jpeg Commodities https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/cryptocurrencies090720 daily 0.75 2020-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597617822889-FOTAW4T9I9M03FRZEMST/LINK081420.png Cryptocurrencies090720 Technical Look: · Prices have been in an uptrend since April of 2020, following a 46% decline on March 12, 2020. · 10 period EMA crossed the 100D EMA have since increased to current levels above $19. · Momentum (using the 10 period RSI as a proxy) is confirming recent price action. · Conventional wisdom would imply that the RSI level is indicating overbought conditions, though I'm inclined to use RSI as a tool for locating divergences. · As such, I would not be inclined to exit long positions of LINK based on the RSI level. · The 2 most recent candles indicate uncertainty in my view, given the narrow trading range. Particularly when juxtaposed with the recent expansion in Average True Range (currently sitting at 1.741). · Prices reaching the upper level of its Bollinger bands indicates that a reversion to the mean could be in order https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596551842168-D18G43MIRI9ZOIVH9I41/image-asset.jpeg Cryptocurrencies090720 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/forex daily 0.75 2021-06-11 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1600092881112-KAVSHQE2PMNJ3P7WDP70/GBPUSD091420.png Forex https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1599098413334-QO9OWCWB4S95BK8PSIHT/EURUSD090220.png Forex https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1623424789640-HK7SJN3I3LX9JM4Q6W0P/CaptureEUR0611.JPG Forex - Make it stand out Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597613973123-L3R8ZG9SSF9O5XD0ABF2/EURUSD081420.png Forex Mean reversion strategy that goes long/short a currency pair, when its price reaches the 2nd standard deviation above/below its average price (i.e. the outer limit of its respective Bollinger band. The strategy looks to take profits when prices have reverted back to the 1st standard deviation. Stop loss levels are set at the 6th standard deviation. The goal is to enter a pair when prices move outside of the 2nd standard deviation, while taking profits just prior to it reverting back to its average price. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596551776792-I9S631MXFH6G6A0K4C9D/image-asset.jpeg Forex https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/copy-of-front-page-to-try-stuff-out daily 0.75 2020-08-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596995382168-7AK1B7XEEOZ8OCWTZE4H/image-asset.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/another-test-copy080920 daily 0.75 2020-08-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596121011598-1E8LVRQL8LF80C7QOWX6/image-asset.jpeg Another test copy080920 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/contact-1 daily 0.75 2020-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597031718514-ULFHAGVA80FZSMK28G6W/image-asset.jpeg Contact 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https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/april-2-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg April 2, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/march-26-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg March 26, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/march-19-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg March 19, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/march-12-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg March 12, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/march-5-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg March 5, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/february-26-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg February 26, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/february-19-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg February 19, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/february-12-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg February 12, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/february-5-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg February 5, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/january-29-2019 daily 0.75 2020-08-14 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596128935855-2412D5WNL2JY89WQ74PA/image-asset.jpeg January 29, 2019 https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/commodities-1 daily 0.75 2020-08-16 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597525239447-RQM0Z61DDUHD96KE6IQB/NatGas081520.png Commodities (Copy) Natural Gas (2020U) $2.356 Fundamental Look: · EIA (Energy Information Administration) data for week ending 8/7/20 · Working gas in storage increased 1.7% over the prior week, at 3,332 Bcf · Current storage is 22% higher than this time last year, and 15% above the 5 year average · The most recent commitment of traders (COT) report shows no change in open interest week to week. · Commercial long positions – down 3% · Commercial short positions – down 2% · Large speculator long positions- up 4% · Large speculator short positions- down 19% On the face of things, the level of inventories relative to the 5 year average gives me a bit of pause as it relates to bullish prospects for natural gas long term. Still, the market reacted positively to the most recent inventory report, despite the 5 Bcf build (versus expectations for a 40 Bcf increase). More important to me (at least for the moment), is the behavior of commercials and large speculators on the most recent COT report. Open interest in its entirety as relatively flat from a week prior. While commercial longs decreased their long positions, by 3%, I also make note that their short positions declined by 2% as well. This coming in conjunction with a 4% increase in long positions by large speculators speaks to the potential for additional upside in natural gas for the moment. Technical Look: · On a technical basis, I would make note that the 10 period EMA crossed the 100 period EMA on August 7th, with prices increasing 17% since that time. · This in coming in conjunction with increased momentum and open interest, which I see as bullish. · In candor, I think a move into natural gas following the most recent move would be a bit late. · Despite the positive factors (in my view) specific to momentum, the contract current price ($2.356) in proximity to its top Bollinger band ($2.419) indicates that a reversion to the mean may be in order in the short term. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596551274701-5HQX0N6XXTSGWE07HRH5/image-asset.jpeg Commodities (Copy) https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/test_page080920 daily 0.75 2020-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597000326137-1ZUBDGI0LED5LSDEBRTD/image-asset.jpeg test_page080920 (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597000460371-D41ZN54I380N33AVYTOW/image-asset.jpeg test_page080920 (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597000207513-VVF01CGAEYKJOE854KDZ/image-asset.jpeg test_page080920 (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597000387168-1O6SLCHAXC5G590EJGRQ/image-asset.jpeg test_page080920 (Copy) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597001017086-QPTPBVFERULRBFD3MDQ3/image-asset.jpeg test_page080920 (Copy) https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/jan-30-2020 daily 0.75 2020-08-17 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596133480748-B56427TWNLN276G5HPYL/image-asset.jpeg Jan 30, 2020 (Copy) https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/equities daily 0.75 2025-10-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598222733380-7ZOLXM24VFAH5FAO0S8B/QAD082320.png Equities QAD Inc (QADA) $44.26 Fundamental Look: · Headquartered in Santa Barbara, CA, but with direct operations across 24 countries, QADA provides cloud based enterprise software solutions to global manufacturing companies · In short QADA provides cloud based software solutions to assist firms in the management of their respective supply chains, reducing costs and increasing efficiencies in the process. · Primary verticals/sectors targeted by QADA are: Automotive, Life Sciences, Consumer Products, Food and Beverage, Technology, and Industrial Products · The company reports its fiscal year 2021 2Q results this upcoming Aug 26th 2020. · Shares of QADA are down 13.10% year to date and sit 18.85% below their 52 week high of $54.54. · Fundamentally, the last 12 months of revenue for QADA are down 1.2% when compared to their prior 12 month fiscal performance. Sequentially, the most recent quarter was off 5.7% from the prior quarter, not entirely surprising given the Covid-19 related impact to global manufacturing as a whole. · Looking forward (specifically to this week’s earnings report), I would expect QADA’s revenues to be relatively in line/flat with the prior quarter’s. I note comments in their past conference call, where the company neglected to give guidance on total revenue. They did however indicate expectations of $31 million in subscription revenue, and maintenance revenue of $26 million (foregoing guidance for “license”, and “professional service” revenue). · Given that management also implied that subscription and maintenance revenue will account for a similar percentage as the prior quarter, I would expect that 2Q total revenue will land between $72 million and $76 million when they report. · QADA’s balance sheet doesn’t give me any major concerns, as its debt to capital ratio sits at 27%. If I were to raise an eyebrow, it would be at the decline in the firm’s interest coverage (EBITDA/Interest) from 22.1x to 5.8x, quarter over quarter. However, I feel confident that the firm is generating enough capital to cover its interest obligations. Additionally, QAD has generated more in operating cash flow than its spends in investing cash flows Technical Look: · From a technical vantage point, QADA shares aren’t screaming buy to me at the moment, but there are a few developments that I think are worth monitoring. (*as a general rule of thumb, I’m reluctant to take a position in a name directly ahead of its earnings report). · I note that the 10 period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed the 100 day on August 18th, with prices increasing 3% since that time period · Additionally, this has come in conjunction with increased momentum, when looking at the 14 period RSI indicator. · Volume at price shows a “mode of value” so to speak around the $40 per share mark. In short, we’ve seen a lot of trading activity at and around that price point. · I applied an anchored volume weighted average price indicator at 5/27/20, 3/18/20, and 11/29/19, respectively, which coincides with the prior 3 earnings releases for QADA. · In doing so, I detect levels of potential support at $40.61, $42, and $44.18 per share respectively. · Of concern to me however, is QADA’s current proximity to the upper end of its Bollinger Bands. · Additionally, the lack of volume in the last several trading days implies a lack of conviction on either side of the trade, which I would attribute to a reluctance to get long (or short) directly ahead of earnings. · At this point, I’ll be paying attention to the behavior in this name following the Aug 26th earnings release. There’s a 25% gap between current levels and its 52 week high of $54.54, which I view as the current opportunity in this name. · Were I to get long, following earnings, I would be looking to apply a stop loss at 1.3x-1.5x the current ATR of 1.56 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597445329588-N1OHQLNJUEVIRL25D1LZ/MDT081420.png Equities Medtronic PLC (MDT) $100.71 Fundamental Look: · Located in Dubland, Ireland, founded in 1949. Provider of medical services, technology, and solutions to hospitals, physicians, and clinicians, globally. · Shares of MDT are down 11.2% year to date and sits 17.5% below its 52 week high of $122.15. · From a fundamental vantage point, the last 12 months of revenue are down 5.3% in comparison to full year end 2019. On a sequential basis, the most recent quarter showed a 23% decline from the prior quarter, which in normal circumstances would certainly be outside of my comfort zone. · In looking to comments from the most recent quarterly call, the decline in sequential revenue was largely attributed to Covid related factors, namely the reduction in elective medical procedures, as healthcare systems directed the bulk of their attention to Covid-19 related procedures. · MDT’s total debt to capital ratio sits at 33% is within my comfort zone (which in general is sub 50% for long ideas). They’ve also spent within operating cash flows in each of the last 4 years, which gives me additional comfort specific to their debt levels remaining in check. The same holds true as it relates to MDT potentially diluting shareholders. · MDT will be reporting their 1Q21 results around August 25th 2020. Technical Look: · From a technical perspective MDT’s 10 day Exponential Moving Average crossed above the 100 day EMA on 8/6/20 with prices increasing 4.1% since that time. · This most recent push higher is accompanied by increased momentum (using the 14 period RSI as means of measurement). Trading volume (using a 20 period time frame) has actually been average, with the most recent candles (both in price movement and trading volume) indicating uncertainty, in my view. · Applying an anchored volume weighted average price indicator, and anchoring from the 3 most recent earnings releases shows potential support points at $94.63, $95.62 per share. In candor however, it also shows a possible point of resistance at $102.27, which in my view fits with the recent uncertainty and narrow trading range of recent candles. · For background, I like to make use of AVWAP to give insight into the average entry price of all long positions from a given/specific point in time. In this particular instance, you have investors who established positions as of 5/21/20 and 2/18/20 with average entry prices below current levels (and conceivably likely to maintain their long positions). · By the same token, those who established positions as of 11/19/19, are showing an average price point of $102.27, which is above current levels. Those investors could very well be inclined to exit their current positions once “made whole”. · Given the aforementioned resistance, my entry point would be near the $103 mark. From a risk management perspective, I would be looking to exit my position at 98.37, should my thesis prove incorrect, amounting to a 4.5% max loss threshold and equivalent to 1.89x the current Average True Range (ATR) of 2.45 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596134947975-8VLZL4CTO0K84CJCO0PH/image-asset.jpeg Equities https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/consulting daily 0.75 2020-08-26 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369410494-YAYBVEP6ELWK8XSHP6YG/image-asset.jpeg Consulting https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369599296-376EE7IVR4Y279YIGCNI/image-asset.jpeg Consulting https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369311871-6UWOAGUOGZT5WMOQND3V/image-asset.jpeg Consulting https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598368407582-6VH9MON797ZDVI9MHI8B/image-asset.jpeg Consulting https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/cryptocurrencies daily 0.75 2022-05-31 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/cf7cf12a-3820-46f2-994c-a1e1bc2edea0/BTC052522.JPG Cryptocurrencies - Make it stand out Technical Look: · BTC has traded in a fairly narrow range over the last 14 days (when looking at closing prices), ranging between $30K and $31K · The most recent spike in volume on the 12th showed a range of $3,679 from high to low, but just $71 between open and close. Essentially we see this as a push and pull between bullish and bearish investors, that ultimately resulted in very little movement in price (despite the increase in volume) · The recent uptick in momentum is bullish in our view (using the 10 period RSI as a proxy) · Historically (indicated by green arrows in panel 2), we saw a 10 period RSI of 16.979 in May of 2021, and a mark of 15.076 on January 22, 2022. On May 9th we saw the RSI decline to 20.317, and expect that momentum will push higher from here. From our vantage point, the increase in momentum should coincide with an increase in BTC prices. · The high volume node around $39K would be our short term price target, but in candor we expect that we will continue to trade flat for the foreseeable future. **What concerns us** · For starters, BTC volume has been below its 20 day moving average for the last 14 days or so. It’s difficult for us to acknowledge conviction (one way or the other) when trading volumes are this low. · On chain analytics shows increased levels of BTC on exchanges over the last week, which we view as bearish. · The ratio of the top 10 exchange inflows to total inflows (i.e. the Whale ratio), is also on the rise. In our view this implies that larger traders are moving their BTC on to exchanges in the event that they need to sell the asset. We expect that the size of these traders’ positions has the potential to have an outsized impact on price movement. · Funding rates remain negative, which implies stronger selling pressure (and potential lower prices), in our view. Ultimately this trade is much more about accumulation of the asset than a call on short term price movement. We like the value we are getting at $30K, but fully expect to spend a bit of time here. Challenging macroeconomic factors (which we’ll explore deeper in future posts), in conjunction with less than optimal on chain data, leave us to conclude that we will trade flat in coming weeks. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1599498428906-QE2FHPFRK8AML595TR7P/090720backtest2.JPG Cryptocurrencies https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1597617822889-FOTAW4T9I9M03FRZEMST/LINK081420.png Cryptocurrencies Technical Look: · Prices have been in an uptrend since April of 2020, following a 46% decline on March 12, 2020. · 10 period EMA crossed the 100D EMA have since increased to current levels above $19. · Momentum (using the 10 period RSI as a proxy) is confirming recent price action. · Conventional wisdom would imply that the RSI level is indicating overbought conditions, though I'm inclined to use RSI as a tool for locating divergences. · As such, I would not be inclined to exit long positions of LINK based on the RSI level. · The 2 most recent candles indicate uncertainty in my view, given the narrow trading range. Particularly when juxtaposed with the recent expansion in Average True Range (currently sitting at 1.741). · Prices reaching the upper level of its Bollinger bands indicates that a reversion to the mean could be in order https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1623723220261-V74QM610HNXNXPBDQDZ8/1Inch.JPG Cryptocurrencies - Make it stand out Technical Look: · 1Inch popped up on a relatively simple screen I ran looking for coins/tokens showing unusually high volume relative to their average · In short, 1Inch was 1 of 2 coins whose trading volume was 50% higher than its moving average over the most recent 30 trading days. Specifically, 1 INCH’s trading volume in Monday’s action was 29 million, in comparison to a 30 day average of 13 million. · Prices breached the 10 day EMA (exponential moving average) of $3.24, but the 10D EMA remains below the 100D EMA of $4.05. · The 10 period RSI (which I use as a proxy for momentum) is moving in conjunction with price, which I view as bullish. · Looking at volume at price, shows what I consider to be mode of value at $4.94, which sits 22% north of the aforementioned 100D EMA. · Using Anchored Weighted Volume Average Price (AVWAP), and anchoring from 1/1/2021, shows an average price of $3.99 for investors who went long 1INCH so far this year. · There are a couple of ways to interpret this in my view. First, you have a host of 1INCH holders within distance of being made whole…which could potentially provide resistance should they liquidate at breakeven. · The 2nd interpretation is that if 1INCH holders are prone to HODL, it should provide a base of support, if price breach $3.99. · My entry on this trade were I to go long, would be to set a buy stop at $4.05, with a price target of $4.94 (essentially targeting the previously mentioned mode of value). · In terms of risk management, my stop would be placed at $3.65 (equating to an approximate 10% loss, and the $0.40 loss threshold equivalent to 75% of the current ATR of $0.537) https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1599496780922-CP58LJDR4I60FSO0BP0U/Zcash090720.png Cryptocurrencies Technical Look: · Prices have increased 31% since the 10 period EMA crossed the 100 period EMA (4/22/20) · Currently there’s been a noticeable uptick in volatility, in conjunction with slowing momentum (using the 14 period RSI as a measurement of momentum) · Additionally, the 25% decline in prices on 9/3/20 came in conjunction with a spike in volume · In the 4 subsequent trading days, 3 finished higher on the day, but with average to below average volume. · In my view, volume at price is indicating an increase in activity at the $52 mark (blue line), implying that we are nearing an area of “agreement” so to speak for Zcash prices. · Prices are currently near the lower end of its Bollinger Band. · If viewing this on a purely one off, discretionary basis, I would say that there is very little harmony so to speak as it relates to price action and/or indicators. The bearish case is driven by factors specific to slowing momentum, increased volume on the recent downturn, and weaker volume on the most recent candles higher. The bullish case would be anchored in large measure by Zcash’s proximity to its Bollinger Bands. · Given the system however, should prices decline to the 3rd standard deviation of its Bollinger Band, we would once again be long Zcash (considering that the RSI metric is also currently north of 20). https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596551842168-D18G43MIRI9ZOIVH9I41/image-asset.jpeg Cryptocurrencies https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/cta-and-fund-services daily 0.75 2020-09-30 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369311871-6UWOAGUOGZT5WMOQND3V/image-asset.jpeg CTA and Fund Services https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369599296-376EE7IVR4Y279YIGCNI/image-asset.jpeg CTA and Fund Services https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598369410494-YAYBVEP6ELWK8XSHP6YG/image-asset.jpeg CTA and Fund Services https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1598368407582-6VH9MON797ZDVI9MHI8B/image-asset.jpeg CTA and Fund Services https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/copy-of-front-page-to-try-stuff-out080920-copy daily 0.75 2025-10-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1724558999882-524M4Z2ANDG6GIVZ2BR6/unsplash-image-oW6LlU_VZkc.jpg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) - Make it stand out FOREX https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596763862971-MUP79Y4LX6SWGN3WGZ0Z/commodities.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) - Make it stand out COMMODITIES https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596763422056-4P3DN0TNUDMC2XVHGH47/equities.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) - Make it stand out EQUITIES https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596764081385-82Q8KY113C0PHOZI5O8D/cryptocurrencies.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) - Make it stand out CRYPTOCURRENCIES https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596995382168-7AK1B7XEEOZ8OCWTZE4H/image-asset.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/read-me-bryant daily 0.75 2025-05-09 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/52a74d9ae4b0253945d2aee9/1390928870858-4D9B6T9WGP8017NSS9W3/topography.jpg Read Me https://www.glennwilliamsjr.com/copy-of-front-page-to-try-stuff-out080920-copy-copy daily 0.75 2025-10-28 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5aa5d6e24611a06cb715dfd4/1596995382168-7AK1B7XEEOZ8OCWTZE4H/image-asset.jpeg Copy of Front Page to Try Stuff Out080920 (Copy) (Copy)